IF DUTERTE WOULD HAVE SUCCEEDED IN MURDERING 99.99% OF THE FILIPINOS, HE WOULD STILL HAVE 40% SUPPORT. THAT TELLS EVERYTHING ABOUT BBM - AND ABOUT THE PHILIPPINES SURVEY ORGANIZATIONS ... WHERE I COME FROM IT WOULD MEAN THAT AT LEAST 60% OPPOSE AND/OR ARE INDIFFERENT TO DUTERTEISM. BUT NOT IN THE PHILIPPINES. IN THE PHILIPPINES ARITHMETICS IS DIFFERENT FROM EVERYWHERE ELSE. THANKS GOD HE IS LOCKED UP. HOPEFULLY HE DOES NOT COME BACK ANYMORE.

While 2 in 5 Filipinos identify as 'pro-Duterte,' many also remain unaffiliated — survey

Dominique Nicole Flores - Philstar.com

May 6, 2025 | 4:45pm

In this file photo taken on Sept. 5, 2018, then president Rodrigo Duterte witnesses the program proper before leading the wreath-laying ceremony at the Holocaust Memorial Park in Rishon Lezion, Israel.

Presidential photo / Karl Norman Alonzo

MANILA, Philippines — In a pre-election survey of over 2,400 likely voters, 40.1% identified as “pro-Duterte” or supporters of former President Rodrigo Duterte, his family and politicians aligned with them.

Public opinion research firm WR Numero released the results on Tuesday, May 6. The survey asked adult Filipinos about their preferred senatorial candidates, party-list groups and general sentiments on the upcoming elections.

Unlike other national polls, WR Numero’s survey also examined the self-identified political leanings of respondents. It found that two in five aligned themselves with the Dutertes — a significant bloc, but not a majority.

Another 31.4% identified as independent, while the remaining 28.6% were either “pro-Marcos” (15%) or supporters of the opposition, including figures like former Vice President Leni Robredo, Sen. Risa Hontiveros and the broader “pink” movement (13.6%).

Combined, the independent, Marcos and opposition supporters comprised 60% of respondents. This may help explain why only two Duterte-aligned candidates made it to the winning circle in the senatorial race: incumbent Senators Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa. 

At the same time, the results also mirror recent trends in the performance ratings of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte. While Marcos has seen a decline, Sara has maintained stronger approval in recent months.

Pro-Duterte support is less conditional

Cleve Arguelles, WR Numero President and political scientist, said that the 40% who identified as “pro-Duterte” may also include those who oppose holding former President Rodrigo Duterte accountable for alleged crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court (ICC).

RELATED: Duterte allies rise in Senate poll, but 3 in 5 Filipinos still back ICC case

He said recent developments — such as the impeachment efforts — have likely solidified support among their base, prompting more to rally behind them.

Arguelles also pointed to differences in political support. For instance, support for the Dutertes, he said, is often rooted in emotional attachment, making it harder for their supporters to be “conditional” or critical.

In contrast, liberal support tends to be more conditional, he said, explaining that voters aligned with liberal or opposition groups are more likely to unite around issues or policy agendas. 

He cited the case of former Commission on Audit commissioner Heidi Mendoza, who faced backlash online from opposition supporters for not backing same-sex marriage or the SOGIE bill, with some saying they would no longer vote for her even if they aligned in other issues.

'A battle of narrative'

In WR Numero’s poll, Go is in a close contest with Rep. Erwin Tulfo for the top spot.

Other candidates from Duterte’s party, PDP-Laban, failed to break into the top 12. Though five of them made it to the top picks of pro-Duterte respondents, their national numbers were lower and have even slightly declined.

A notable finding was that Sen. Imee Marcos, who left her brother’s Alyansa slate and sought the Duterte camp’s endorsement, remained primarily supported by pro-Marcos voters. Among this bloc, she ranked third, behind Tulfo and former Sen. Tito Sotto.

Most of the candidates polling in the top 12 nationally were backed by the administration or part of the Alyansa slate. While rankings vary slightly, the results broadly align with those of other firms like Pulse Asia.

RELATED: Most Alyansa bets retain lead in Senate race, while some pro-Duterte contenders fall short  

Go notably placed among the top 12 across all partisan groups. Among independent voters, Tulfo, Sotto and Sen. Pia Cayetano were the top choices.

Two opposition or alternative candidates — former Senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan — also stand a strong chance of winning seats. 

Aquino ranked first among opposition-aligned respondents, followed by Tulfo and Pangilinan. However, Pangilinan still hovers at 15th place overall and would need to surpass Imee and former Sen. Manny Pacquiao to make it into the top 12.

Gary Dionisio, dean of the Benilde School of Diplomacy and Governance, said the major factor driving the popularity of leading candidates in pre-election polls is virality and has become a “battle of narrative.”

The WR Numero survey was conducted from April 23 to 30 and has a ±2% national margin of error at a 95% confidence level.