THAT WAS 2016. YES, THAT PREDICTION WAS EASY, THEY ARE NOT REALLY ORIGINAL, THEY HAVE NEVER BEEN ORIGINAL. NONETHELESS IT IS STRANGE THAT THIS FITS INTO THEIR PLAN TOO. THE HOPE WAS THAT THE HANDFUL OF POWERS COULD BE DOMINATED BY THE GLOBALIST CRIMINAL SYNDICATE. NO, IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN: FEUDALISM WAS ABOLISHED FOR GOOD IN 1789 AND NAZIFASCISM WAS DEFEATED MILITARILY. THIS TIME WILL NOT BE DIFFERENT. ONLY THE LOSERS WILL BE DIFFERENT.

 

America’s dominance is over. By 2030, we'll have a handful of global powers

Nov 11, 2016

The sun is setting on the power structures of the twentieth century

Image: REUTERS/Gary Hershorn/Files

Robert Muggah

Co-founder, SecDev Group and Co-founder, Igarapé Institute

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This article is part of: Annual Meeting of the Global Future Councils

Watch the Outlook for the United States session here and a Conversation with John Kerry: Diplomacy in an Era of Disruption here.

The world's political landscape in 2030 will look considerably different to the present one. Nation states will remain the central players. There will be no single hegemonic force but instead a handful of countries – the U.S., Russia, China, Germany, India and Japan chief among them – exhibiting semi-imperial tendencies. Power will be more widely distributed across non-state networks, including regressive ones. And vast conurbations of mega-cities and their peripheries will exert ever greater influence. The post-war order that held since the middle of the twentieth century is coming unstuck. Expect uncertainty and instability ahead.

Nation states are making a comeback. The largest ones are busily expanding their global reach even as they shore-up their territorial and digital borders. As the onslaught of reactionary politics around the world amply shows, there are no guarantees that these vast territorial dominions and their satellites will become more liberal or democratic. Instead, relentless climate change, migration, terrorism, inequality and rapid technological change are going to ratchet up anxiety, insecurity and, as is already painfully apparent, populism and authoritarianism. While showing cracks, the four-century reign of the nation state will endure for some decades more.

It was not supposed to be this way. During the 1990s, scholars forecasted the decline and demise of the nation state. Globalization was expected to hasten their irrelevance. With the apparent triumph of liberal democracy, spread of free-market capitalism, and promise of minimal state interference, Francis Fukayama famously predicted the end of history and, by extension, the fading away of anachronistic nation states. A similar claim was made a century earlier: Friedreich Engels predicted the “withering away of the state” in the wake of socialism.