Radical political changes
There are events happening in the United States that could eventually have geopolitical and economic effects on the world, including the Philippines. President Trump and his hatchet man Elon Musk have introduced what can only be called revolutionary changes in the way the US government is going to be run. This is also leading to drastic changes in the cultural values of American society. The US foreign policy at this point seems to be headed for a radical change. The old framework of competition between the liberal democracies led by the United States and western Europe against the authoritarian regimes led by Russia and China seems to be ending.
Trump and Musk, for example, have decided to virtually close down the USAID, which is the principal agency for American humanitarian aid to developing countries. This aid program has been a principal tool for introducing democratic values to third world countries. The end of USAID will leave a vacuum for Russia and China to exert more influence throughout the world. From a recent decree by the Elon Musk task force has come the order for 9,700 out of 10,000 USAID employees around the world to report back to the United States, presumably to be laid off.
In the United States, employees in the principal intelligence organizations like the FBI and CIA are being investigated and there are announcements that there will be major layoffs in these agencies. These are, by the way, the principal or frontline agencies in the fight against Russian and Chinese operations against America.
It almost seems like the Trump administration has decided that they are not going to wage any more struggles against authoritarian regimes.
At the same time, the Trump government has announced trade wars through tariff increases against its closest allies like Canada, Mexico and the European Union. Trump has accused these countries of exploiting the United States.
Donald Trump is beginning to sound like Xi Jinping when they articulate their imperialist ambitions. Xi, for example, has decided to claim the whole South China Sea, including the West Philippine Sea, as Chinese territory. China is also having territorial disputes with India, Vietnam and Japan. Trump is now also stating that the United States may claim foreign territories like the Panama Canal, Greenland, a territory of Denmark, and Gaza presently inhabited by 1.9 million Palestinians.
It has become apparent that US foreign policy will now be based solely on advancing American interests. In a TV interview, an American guest explained that American interests means, for example, that if Tesla, the company owned by Elon Musk, needs to import cobalt from Congo, then it will be American interest that will lead to exerting influence in Congo, either by friendly means or through force, if necessary.
The big question mark for the Philippines is whether it will be to the American interest to help defend the Philippines against the continuous Chinese incursions in the West Philippine Sea. Trump has also not said anything specific on whether the US is prepared to defend Taiwan.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that American policy is still to maintain its commitments to Taiwan and the Philippines. Hopefully, this will become part of Trump’s official policy.
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In the Philippines, the political headline is definitely the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte. The favorite topic among political pundits now is to determine the different possible scenarios about the forthcoming Senate trial of Duterte.
It seems that at the point, the Senate will begin the trial after the midterm elections this coming May. The senatorial candidates do not want to be forced to openly declare their vote for or against impeachment because they will lose votes either way they cast their ballot.
The big question now is whether President BBM will call for a special session before the May 12 elections or agree for the Senate to have the impeachment trial after the elections in June. It seems apparent that the final decision will be based on when the best timing will be to attain the objective of convicting the Vice President. There are those observers who believe that the best timing is before election because there are some senatorial candidates on BBM’s ticket that may change their political loyalties after the election when the political support of the administration is no longer necessary.
The other question is whether the Vice President will just resign if she sees that she will definitely be convicted by the Senate. A resignation will save her from being forbidden to run for any political office in the future. The next question is whether the government will file a criminal case against Sara Duterte in the future based on the quad comm findings of corruption and other criminal acts.
I believe that if the International Criminal Court goes through with filing a case against the Dutertes, the BBM government will also be motivated to file a similar case in the local courts.
This year will see several major political changes in the United States, the world and the Philippines.
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