DUTERTENOMICS WAS THE WEF


 

 

 

 

 

  1. DuterteNomics

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    DuterteNomics is a catch-all term referring to the socioeconomic policies of Rodrigo Duterte, the 16th president of the Philippines. A significant part of these policies include the development of infrastructure and industries in the Philippines.[1]

    Background

    Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III has said that the government required what he describes as an "audacious" economic strategy in order for the Philippines to "catch up with its more vibrant neighbors" by 2022 and help it achieve high-income economy status within a generation. The term DuterteNomics was coined to describe the economic policy of the Duterte administration. The term also refers to the series of forums where Duterte's economic team pitches the administration's plan to help the country become a high-middle-income economy by 2022.[2]

    The policy was unveiled on April 18, 2017, by the Department of Finance and the Presidential Communications Operations Office (PCOO), in cooperation with the Center for Strategy, Enterprise and Intelligence (CenSEI) in a forum held at Conrad Manila in Pasay. A second forum was held on April 25, 2017.[2]

    DuterteNomics was also pitched abroad, particularly at the 2017 World Economic Forum on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Cambodia and at the sidelines of the 2017 One Belt One Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing, China.[2]

    Ten-point agenda

    The economics team of then President-elect Rodrigo Duterte presented the following points of Duterte's socioeconomic policy in a business forum in Davao in June 2016.[3] DuterteNomics is anchored on these ten principles.[2]

    1. Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies, including fiscal, monetary, and trade policies.
    2. Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection, indexing taxes to inflation.
    3. Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business.
    4. Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5% of GDP, with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role.
    5. Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism.
    6. Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments, and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies.
    7. Invest in human capital development, including health and education systems, and match skills and training.
    8. Promote science, technology, and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity.
    9. Improve social protection programs, including the government's Conditional Cash Transfer program.
    10. Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law.

    Build! Build! Build! Program

    Skyway Stage 3 construction along G. Araneta, Quezon City

    Part of DuterteNomics is the Build! Build! Build! Infrastructure Plan which according to the administration will usher in the "Golden Age of Infrastructure". The goals of the program are to reduce poverty, encourage economic growth and reduce congestion in Metro Manila.[4][5] The program also involves the continuation of some projects under previous administrations.[6]

    In November 2019, the government revised its list of flagship infrastructure projects under Duterte's "Build, Build, Build" program, expanding it to 100.[7][8] It was revised again in August 2020, bringing the total number of projects to 104, expanding its scope included health, information and communications technology, as well as water infrastructure projects to support the country's economic growth and recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of September 11, 2020, 24 projects are still in the approval & planning stages, while 80 were under implementation.[9]

    As of July 2021, 214 airport projects, 451 commercial social and tourism port projects, 29,264 kilometres (18,184 mi) of roads, 5,950 bridges, 11,340 flood control projects, 11,340 evacuation centers, and 150,149 classrooms had been completed under the infrastructure program.[10][11] The numbers cited include newly-built infrastructure, and projects involving the repair, rehabilitation, widening, and expansion of existing infrastructure.[12]

    Economic trends

    Economic outlook

    In December 2017, government data revealed that the Philippines' output of nickel ore fell 16 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, after the country, which is the world's top supplier of the metal, suspended some mines in a clampdown on environmental violations. Production dropped to 19.8 million tons in the nine months to September from 25.97 million tonnes a year ago, according to the data.[13] According to Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez, the "Philippine economy is delivering the performance we anticipated, notwithstanding the political noise and a significant terrorist event in Mindanao". Dominguez gave the assessment during the Banyan Tree Leadership Forum of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.[14]

    On March 31, 2018, the Financial Times reported that the export of the Philippines has continued its drastic drop for the fifth month in a row,[15] while the Philippine Statistics Authority reported that the trade deficit of the country has widened to 47.6%, endangering further the country's local economies.[16]

    In October 2018, the World Bank downgraded the economic outlook of the Philippines for 2018, but expects it to remain strong.[17] FMIC and UA&P expect the economy to improve in the second half of 2018.[18] On October 24, the Philippines improved its ranking by 29 places in the Ease of Doing Business rankings.[19]

    On November 2, 2018, the Philippines slipped 11 places from the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business rankings.[20][21] The Department of Finance is demanding a correction from the World Bank, citing the smaller data set used to assess the country's credit base.[22][23]

    Inflation rate

    On July 5, 2018, the inflation rate of the country soared to 5.2%, its highest in 5 years.[24] The inflation rate worsened the impacts of the government's new tax policy, increasing the price of all goods in the country.[25]

    In September 2018, the inflation rate of the country further increased to 6.7%, its highest in a decade.[26][27] President Duterte blamed American president Donald Trump for the inflation increase.[28] Opposition Senator Francis Pangilinan, however, pointed out that if the United States was to blame, then all countries in ASEAN should have been experiencing the same, and only the Philippines had a very high inflation rate in the entire region at that time.[29] On September 21, 2018, Duterte signed Administrative Order No. 13, removing non-tariff barriers in the importation of agricultural products, to address soaring inflation rates.[30][31]

    According to ING, with food prices decreasing, the worst of the inflation crisis is over.[32] Inflation decreased in November 2018, at 5.8 to 6.6 percent.[33] BSP decreased its inflation forecast for 2019, after the passage of the rice tariffication bill.[34]

    Inflation stayed at 6.7 percent in October 2018, higher than expected.[35] July 2019 was met with a 2.4% inflation rate.[36] October 2019 received an 0.8% inflation rate, the lowest under Duterte.[37] However, this increased to 2.5% by December 2019.[38] and increased again to 2.7% by July 2020.[39]

    Income and employment

    Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, economic managers predicted the accession of the Philippine economy to upper-middle-income status by 2019, citing massive infrastructure spending and robust growth.[40][41][42]

    COVID-19 pandemic

    Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno and then-NEDA Director-General Ernesto Pernia forecast that the Philippine economy would likely enter a recession in 2020 due to the effect of the pandemic. Diokno stated that, although the first quarter is likely to grow by 3% since the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine only took effect near the end of the quarter, the second and third quarters would likely experience contractions in economic growth.[43]

    The unemployment rate of the country continued to follow a downward trend since 2005, however, it reached a record-high 17.7% in April 2020, where 1 in every 5 persons in the labor force are unemployed, accounting to 7.3 million jobless Filipinos.[44][45]

    On the second quarter of 2020, the Philippine economy went into a recession for the first time in 29 years, where it shrank by 16.5%, which was one of the biggest falls in the Southeast Asian region. GDP fell by 9%. Seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 15.2 percent in the second quarter from the first three months of the year.[46]

    The government expects an economic rebound by 2021, driven in part by the BBB infrastructure program.[47][48]

    See also

    References


  2. "Home". Build!. Archived from the original on June 22, 2017. Retrieved June 28, 2017.

  3. "TIMELINE for Duterte's economic agenda". The Manila Times. May 29, 2017. Archived from the original on June 23, 2017. Retrieved June 28, 2017.

  4. Macas, Trisha (June 20, 2016). "Duterte's economic team reveals 10-point socioeconomic agenda". GMA News. DVM, GMA News. Archived from the original on October 6, 2017. Retrieved June 28, 2017.

  5. "DuterteNomics unveiled". Presidential Communications Operations Office. April 19, 2017. Archived from the original on April 24, 2017. Retrieved June 28, 2017.

  6. Villar, Mark A. (September 13, 2021). "The ambitious 'Build, Build, Build' delivers". Philippine Daily Inquirer. Archived from the original on September 13, 2021. Retrieved September 24, 2021.

  7. Luna, Franco (November 14, 2019). "'Zero' infrastructure projects during Aquino administration? Not quite". The Philippine Star. Archived from the original on November 15, 2019. Retrieved September 18, 2020. A separate list on the Official Gazette also tallies projects that were approved during the Aquino administration that were meant to alleviate traffic congestion and that were expected to be completed by the succeeding Duterte administration. ... Certain Aquino-era projects, such as the MRT-7 line, the Bicol International Airport, and NLEX Harbor Link Segments were also repurposed by the Duterte administration and are now listed among the high-impact priority projects under the "Build, Build, Build" program.

  8. de Guzman, Warren (November 14, 2019). "LIST: 100 projects under revised 'Build, Build, Build'". ABS-CBN News. Archived from the original on November 14, 2019. Retrieved December 3, 2019.

  9. "Recommended List of Projects for Inclusion in the Infrastructure Flagship Program" (PDF). ABS-CBN News. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 3, 2019. Retrieved December 3, 2019.

  10. "Longer list of 'Build, Build, Build' projects OKd". Public-Private Partnership Center. September 11, 2020. Archived from the original on January 12, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2021.

  11. Lamentillo, Anna Mae Yu (July 21, 2021). "What has 'Build, Build, Build' achieved so far?". Manila Bulletin. Archived from the original on July 20, 2021. Retrieved July 21, 2021.

  12. Lamentillo, Anna Mae Yu (October 8, 2021). "Why do I support 'Build, Build, Build'?". Manila Bulletin. Retrieved October 22, 2021.

  13. "CONTEXT: Number of airports, seaports, bridges, roads in 'Duterte legacy' graphic". Rappler. January 22, 2020. Retrieved April 4, 2022.

  14. "Philippines third quarter nickel ore output drops 16 percent as Duterte's green clampdown bites". Reuters. December 5, 2016. Archived from the original on September 26, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.

  15. "RP economy weathers political noise". ABS-CBN News. October 16, 2017. Archived from the original on September 26, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.

  16. "Philippines exports decline for fifth month in May". Financial Times. Archived from the original on July 13, 2018. Retrieved July 17, 2018.

  17. "Philippines' trade deficit widens by 47.6% in May 2018". Rappler. Archived from the original on July 11, 2018. Retrieved July 17, 2018.

  18. "World Bank downgrades 2018 Philippine economic outlook". Rappler. Archived from the original on February 27, 2021. Retrieved January 12, 2021.

  19. "FMIC, UA&P: Philippine economy may 'rebound' in H2, but not without 'bumps'". The Philippine Star. Archived from the original on November 1, 2018. Retrieved October 12, 2018.

  20. "PH moves up 29 notches in global ease of doing business ranking". Manila Bulletin. Archived from the original on October 24, 2019. Retrieved October 24, 2019.

  21. "PH slips 11 notches in World Bank's ease of doing business ranking". Rappler. Archived from the original on November 2, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.

  22. "Philippines ranking falls in Ease of Doing Business". The Philippine Star. Archived from the original on November 2, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.

  23. "Philippines 'demanding a correction' from World Bank: Trade Sec Lopez". ABS-CBN News. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.

  24. "PHL protests Ease of Doing Business survey results, demands World Bank review of credit coverage data". BusinessMirror. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.

  25. "June 2018 inflation soars to 5.2%". Rappler. Archived from the original on July 13, 2018. Retrieved July 17, 2018.

  26. "Inflation jumps to new 5-year high in June, beats forecasts". The Philippine Star. Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved July 17, 2018.

  27. "Inflation in September 2018 strains Filipinos' budget at 6.7%". Rappler. Archived from the original on October 5, 2018. Retrieved October 7, 2018.

  28. "Inflation soars to new 9-year high of 6.7% in September". The Philippine Star. Archived from the original on October 7, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.

  29. Ropero, Gillan. "Duterte blames Trump for high inflation in PH". ABS-CBN News. Archived from the original on September 22, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2019.

  30. "Pangilinan slams Duterte for blaming inflation on Trump". ABS-CBN News. Archived from the original on September 22, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2019.

  31. "Inflation at 6.2 percent for third quarter of 2018: BSP". ABS-CBN News. Archived from the original on December 3, 2019. Retrieved October 20, 2018.

  32. "Duterte cuts red tape in importing agricultural products". Rappler. Archived from the original on October 20, 2018. Retrieved October 20, 2018.

  33. Lucas, Daxim L. "Worst is over for PH inflation crisis as food prices ease, ING says". Philippine Daily Inquirer. Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.

  34. "Inflation likely at 5.8 to 6.6 percent in November: BSP". ABS-CBN News. Archived from the original on November 30, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.

  35. "Bangko Sentral drastically lowers 2019 inflation outlook". ABS-CBN News. Archived from the original on November 30, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.

  36. "Inflation stays at 6.7% in October, higher than officials' expectation". CNN Philippines. Archived from the original on January 10, 2021. Retrieved September 22, 2020.

  37. Gatpolintan, Leslie (August 5, 2020). "July inflation rate hits 2.7% as transport costs rise". Philippine News Agency. Archived from the original on September 29, 2020. Retrieved January 12, 2021.

  38. Esguerra, Darryl John (November 5, 2019). "Palace: With 'sound, working' Duterte economic policies, PH has slowest inflation in 3 years". Philippine Daily Inquirer. Archived from the original on November 5, 2019. Retrieved December 3, 2019.

  39. "December inflation fastest in six months". BusinessWorld. Archived from the original on August 7, 2020. Retrieved September 22, 2020.

  40. "Inflation quickens in July as transport prices rise". cnn. Archived from the original on September 25, 2020. Retrieved September 22, 2020.

  41. "Philippines set to become upper middle-income economy by 2019". Manila Standard. Archived from the original on October 12, 2018. Retrieved October 12, 2018.

  42. "Philippines to become upper-middle income country by 2019 – Pernia". Rappler. Archived from the original on October 12, 2018. Retrieved October 12, 2018.

  43. "PH to be upper-middle income country in 2019, Pernia says". ABS-CBN News. Archived from the original on October 12, 2018. Retrieved October 12, 2018.

  44. Noble, Luz Wendy; Laforga, Beatrice (March 30, 2020). "PHL may go into recession – Diokno". BusinessWorld. Archived from the original on March 30, 2020. Retrieved March 30, 2020.

  45. "In Duterte's 4th year, COVID-19 causes highest unemployment on record". Rappler. Archived from the original on October 5, 2020. Retrieved October 12, 2020.

  46. "PH unemployment at all-time high with 7.3 million jobless in April 2020". Rappler. Archived from the original on October 12, 2020. Retrieved October 12, 2020.

  47. "Philippine economy posts its biggest-ever quarterly plunge". www.aljazeera.com. Archived from the original on October 31, 2020. Retrieved October 12, 2020.

  48. Lucas, Daxim L. (August 25, 2020). "BSP: Early recovery signs point to strong 2021 economic rebound". Philippine Daily Inquirer. Archived from the original on July 3, 2021. Retrieved October 12, 2020.

  49. "'Build, Build, Build' to fuel PH economy 'bounce back' – Dominguez". cnn. Archived from the original on October 12, 2020. Retrieved October 12, 2020.

IL PIU' GRANDE CAMERIERE LECCACULO DEL MONDO E' NEL MIRINO DELLA RUSSIA: E' SOLO QUESTIONE DI TEMPO

 

Italy may soon be unable to arm Ukraine – foreign minister

Luigi Di Maio has warned the crisis around PM Mario Draghi’s government could see an end to support
Italy may soon be unable to arm Ukraine – foreign minister

Political turmoil in Italy could soon see Rome unable to continue supporting Ukraine with weapons deliveries, the country’s foreign minister has warned. According to Luigi Di Maio, this would be the case should the incumbent government not survive a no-confidence vote next week.  

In a phone interview with US media outlet Politico on Friday, Di Maio said that those in Italy who want the collapse of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government are playing into the hands of the Kremlin. 

“The Russians are right now celebrating having made another Western government fall,” the minister argued.  

Di Maio went on to express doubt as to whether Italy will be able to keep supplying arms to Ukraine under these circumstances, adding that “it is one of the many serious problems.” 

The official explained that, should the government collapse, it would still remain in power for some time in a caretaker capacity. However, in this case, its powers would be reduced, meaning, among other things, that the government wouldn’t be able to continue weapons deliveries to Ukraine. 

“If the government falls on Wednesday, we won’t have the power to sign any new energy contracts and this is serious because we are headed into winter,” the minister added.

According to Di Maio, Italy could also end up without a 2023 budget as the document is normally passed by parliament between July and December. Should there be elections in September or October, however, it could take months before a new coalition government is formed, meaning that the budget would be postponed, the minister explained. He added that it took 100 days to form a government the last time.  

On Thursday, the Five Star Movement, which is part of Prime Minister Draghi’s coalition government, boycotted a no-confidence vote, with the premier offering to resign in response. However, Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella refused to accept his resignation, with Draghi’s government facing another no-confidence vote on Wednesday.  

Di Maio, who had been one of the Five Star Movement’s leaders but left the party last month over a row concerning arms deliveries to Ukraine, laid into his former allies, accusing them of “helping Putin’s propaganda and autocracy over democracy.” 

The foreign minister hailed Prime Minister Draghi as one of the staunchest opponents of the Kremlin in the West, who advocated strong sanctions and the freezing of Russia’s foreign reserves following the start of Russia’s offensive against Ukraine in late February. 

The Five Star Movement has attempted to weaken the incumbent Italian government on several occasions over the past few months already, the official claimed. He specifically mentioned the party’s opposition to an increase in Italy’s defense spending to meet the NATO target, as well as a resolution in parliament against NATO and Italy’s support for Ukraine. 

Di Maio, however, said at the same time that a lot of other political forces and labor unions in Italy understood the importance of having a fully functioning government, meaning that Draghi hopefully could stay in power after all.

The Revival of Rail Infrastructure in the Philippines: IT IS A PITY THAT PEOPLE REFUSE TO USE PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION BECAUSE OF THE NO SPEECH POLICIES

 

The Revival of Rail Infrastructure in the Philippines

The ADB and JICA are currently funding extensive upgrades to the country’s railways and urban mass transit systems.

The Revival of Rail Infrastructure in the Philippines

A light rail transit line in Manila, Philippines.

Credit: Depositphotos

On June 9, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) approved up to $4.3 billion in loans for the southern leg of the Philippines’ gargantuan North–South Commuter Railway project. The railway line is being constructed in three segments and will span a total length of 147 kilometers. It will start in the north near Clark International Airport and then run down through the urban core of Manila before continuing on to its southern terminus in Calamba. This follows on the ADB’s approval of a $2.75 billion loan in 2019  for the northern segment which is currently under construction.

The total cost for just the north and south segments will be $14.2 billion, of which the ADB has agreed to cover about half through loans, with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) picking up another $3.68 billion. Separately, JICA is financing the construction of the middle section that will connect Tutuban to Mololos. The scale of this project is enormous and, according to the ADB, represents the bank’s “largest infrastructure financing in the Asia and Pacific region to date.”

But this $14 billion mega railway project is only part of the story. One of the major economic policy programs during the Duterte administration has been increased infrastructure spending, and this includes Manila’s urban transit system, which is due for a big upgrade. For nearly two decades, mass transit in Manila was covered by three lines which have struggled with service and maintenance issues. Those lines are receiving upgrades and expansions, while two new lines, the MRT 4 and 7, have been approved or are under construction.

Even more ambitious is the Metro Manila Subway, a 355 billion peso ($6.3 billion at current exchange rates) mega-project being financed by JICA. Dubbed the “Project of the Century” it will represent a major upgrade to Manila’s urban transit system and is a fairly impressive engineering feat. Separately from that, the city government of the upscale Makati district has entered into an agreement with a private developer to build out its own subway system. The Makati project primarily involves Chinese financiers and construction companies.

Taken together, the commitment to investing in public transit infrastructure in metro Manila and its surroundings is real and the scale is very large. It echoes similarly ambitious public transit projects underway in Bangkok, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Jakarta and it’s clear that there is a lot of construction and investment in the region aimed at the transit sector. But a few things jump out at me about how this is being rolled out in Manila.

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First, almost all of these projects are being backed by the ADB or JICA. Outside of the Makati project, which is a local government initiative, China’s role is relatively small compared to that of Japan. This underscores the fact that while China’s Belt and Road Initiative often grabs the headlines, Japan’s footprint when it comes to infrastructure financing in the region may be less noticeable but is often more significant.

I think it’s also worth mentioning that big transit upgrades for Manila and its surroundings have been in some stage of  planning and development for decades. At one point several years ago the government had signed contracts with Chinese counterparties to finance and build portions of the North–South Commuter Railway, but the deal fell apart and was cancelled.

The fact that these projects have moved forward and overcome numerous political, legal, logistical, and financial hurdles that waylaid previous attempts helps, I think, to explain why Duterte remained broadly popular with the Philippine electorate despite his well-chronicled shortcomings and controversies. His administration delivered on some big infrastructure projects where others failed.

The new president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., would probably like his economic policies to be seen as a continuation of these efforts. But in a way Duterte did the easy part, by leveraging geostrategic competition between China and Japan during a time of loose monetary policy to get big projects financed. Marcos Jr. may find his role – bringing these huge and complex projects to completion while repaying the liabilities incurred to fund them at a time of high inflation and when global monetary conditions are tightening – a bit tougher.

IL PIU' GRANDE CAMERIERE LECCACULO DEL MONDO E' NEL MIRINO DELLA RUSSIA: E' SOLO QUESTIONE DI TEMPO

 

Italy's FM points finger at Russia over government crisis

Opponents of embattled PM Mario Draghi are doing Vladimir Putin’s work, the Italian foreign minister says
Italy's FM points finger at Russia over government crisis

The ongoing government crisis in Italy is playing into the Kremlin’s hands, Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio has claimed. The turmoil is hampering Rome’s ability to provide military support to Ukraine, as well as to secure new energy contracts, the minister told POLITICO in an interview on Friday.

Critics of embattled Prime Minister Mario Draghi are effectively doing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s work, Di Maio suggested, urging Italian political parties not to bring down the government in an upcoming confidence vote next week. Draghi has been among the Western leaders to strongly oppose Russia over its military operation in Ukraine, the minister claimed.

“The Russians are right now celebrating having made another Western government fall,” Di Maio said. “Now I doubt we can send arms [to Ukraine]. It is one of the many serious problems.”

The Italian government fell into disarray earlier this week when Draghi faced a confidence vote in parliament. While he comfortably survived it by 172-39, the ballot was boycotted by the Five Star Movement, the largest party in Draghi’s broad coalition government.

The premier announced his resignation after the vote, citing the loss of support from the largest coalition partner and stating that the conditions to govern “no longer exist.” His resignation, however, was rejected by Italian President Sergio Mattarella. Draghi is set to go back to parliament on Wednesday, potentially holding a vote on his government or resigning again.

The prime minister, who previously led the European Central Bank, was appointed Italian PM in early 2021 in a bid to help the country deal with the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. However, he has faced persistent criticism from the Five Star Movement’s leader and ex-PM Giuseppe Conte over a number of issues. Tensions grew worse over Italy’s support for anti-Russia sanctions and its support for Kiev, ultimately causing a split in the Five Star Movement.

Di Maio said Conte’s actions were what “hurts him the most.”

“The incredible thing is this is an ex-prime minister attacking Draghi, helping Putin’s propaganda and autocracy over democracy,” the minister said.

The political turmoil spells troubles for Italy itself as well, Di Maio continued, as the potential downfall of the government would jeopardize Rome’s ability to secure new energy contracts ahead of winter.

Buchanan: Is a US-Russia War Becoming Inevitable?

 

Buchanan: Is a US-Russia War Becoming Inevitable?

by Patrick J. Buchanan | Buchanan.org
If Putin makes a military move into Finland, the U.S. will go to war against the world’s largest nation with an arsenal of between 4,500 and 6,000 battlefield and strategic nuclear weapons…
To go to war with the Soviet Union over the preservation of Finnish territory would have been seen as madness during the Cold War.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin breaches the 830-mile Finnish border, the United States will rise to Helsinki’s defense and fight Russia on Finland’s side.

What does Finland’s membership in NATO mean for America?

If Putin makes a military move into Finland, the U.S. will go to war against the world’s largest nation with an arsenal of between 4,500 and 6,000 battlefield and strategic nuclear weapons.

No Cold War president would have dreamed of making such a commitment — to risk the survival of our nation to defend territory of a country thousands of miles away that has never been a U.S. vital interest.

To go to war with the Soviet Union over the preservation of Finnish territory would have been seen as madness during the Cold War.

Recall: Harry Truman refused to use force to break Joseph Stalin’s blockade of Berlin. Dwight Eisenhower refused to send U.S. troops to save the Hungarian freedom fighters being run down by Soviet tanks in Budapest in 1956.

Lyndon B. Johnson did nothing to assist the Czech patriots crushed by Warsaw Pact armies in 1968. When Lech Walesa’s Solidarity was smashed on Moscow’s order in Poland in 1981, Ronald Reagan made brave statements and sent Xerox machines.

While the U.S. issued annual declarations of support during the Cold War for the “captive nations” of Central and Eastern Europe, the liberation of these nations from Soviet control was never deemed so vital to the West as to justify a war with the USSR.

Indeed, in the 40 years of the Cold War, NATO, which had begun in 1949 with 12 member nations, added only four more — Greece, Turkey, Spain and West Germany.

Yet, with the invitation to Sweden and Finland to join as the 31st and 32nd nations to receive an Article 5 war guarantee, NATO will have doubled its membership since what was thought — certainly by the Russians — to have been the end of the Cold War.

All the nations once part of Moscow’s Warsaw Pact — East Germany, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria — are now members of a U.S.-led NATO — directed against Russia.

Three former republics of the USSR — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania — are now also members of NATO, a military alliance formed to corral and contain the nation to which they had belonged during the Cold War.

Lithuania, with 2% of Russia’s population, has just declared a partial blockade of goods moving across its territory to Kaliningrad, Russia’s enclave on the Baltic Sea.

To Putin’s protest, Vilnius has reminded Moscow that Lithuania is a member of NATO.

It is a dictum of geostrategic politics that a great power ought never cede to a lesser power the ability to draw it into a great war.

In 1914, the kaiser’s Germany gave its Austrian ally a “blank check” to punish Serbia for its role in the assassination of the Archduke Francis Ferdinand, heir to the Austrian throne. Vienna cashed the kaiser’s check and attacked Serbia, and the Great War of 1914-1918 was on.

In March 1939, Neville Chamberlain issued a war guarantee to Poland. If Germany attacked Poland, Britain would fight on Poland’s side.

Fortified with this war guarantee from the British Empire, the Poles stonewalled Hitler, refusing to talk to Berlin over German claims to the city of Danzig, taken from her at the 1919 Paris Peace Conference.

On Sept. 1, 1939, Hitler attacked and Britain declared war, a war that lasted six years and mortally wounded the British Empire.

And Poland? At Yalta in 1945, Winston Churchill agreed that a Soviet-occupied Poland should remain in Stalin’s custody.

Putin is a Russian nationalist who regards the breakup of the USSR as the greatest calamity of the 20th century, but he is not alone responsible for the wretched relations between our countries.

We Americans have played a leading role in what is shaping up as a Second Cold War, more dangerous than the first.

Over the last quarter-century, after Russia dissolved the Warsaw Pact and let the USSR break apart into 15 nations, we pushed NATO, created to corral and contain Russia, into Central and Eastern Europe.

In 2008, neocons goaded Georgia into attacking South Ossetia, provoking Russian intervention and the rout of the Georgian army.

In 2014, neocons goaded Ukrainians into overthrowing the elected pro-Russian regime in Kyiv. When they succeeded, Putin seized Crimea and Sevastopol, for centuries the home base of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

In 2022, Moscow asked the U.S. to pledge not to bring Ukraine into NATO. We refused. And Putin attacked. If Russians believe their country has been pushed against a wall by the West, can we blame them?

Americans appear dismissive of dark Russian warnings that rather than accept defeat in Ukraine, the humiliation of their nation, and their encirclement and isolation, they will resort to tactical nuclear weapons.

Is it really wisdom to dismiss these warnings as “saber-rattling”?


The Crucial Difference Between the Fall of Sri Lanka and the Dutch Uprising
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WEF Great Reset Destroys Sri Lanka

 

Recap: WEF Great Reset Destroy Sri Lanka

Lately, Twitter feeds have been buzzing with news surrounding the Sri Lanka uprising. This article will break down a few key points:

  • Sri Lanka’s location, and link to the World Economic Forum
  • What has been happening in the country
  • Why it matters

To begin, Sri Lanka is an island nation in Asia, located just south of India.

Google Maps — Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s economy has been in collapse for months, its people experiencing food, electricity, and fuel shortages; difficulties that a large amount of the country never before worried about.

In an interview with AP News, a senior researcher at the Centre for Policy Alternatives in Sri Lanka’s capital city of Colombo, Bhavani Fonseka said, “The crisis has really shocked the middle class — it has forced them into hardships they were never exposed to before, like getting basic items, not knowing whether they could get fuel despite spending hours in line.”

This economic devastation can be directly linked to the World Economic Forum, through ideology and partnership with Sri Lanka’s leaders.

In 2018, Ranil Wickremesinghe, the Prime Minster of Sri Lanka, wrote an article for the World Economic Forum’s website titled “PM: This is how I will make my country rich by 2025.” The article has recently been deleted.

Conveniently, other websites at the time archived the article, such as Sunday Times. Here, Ranil Wickremesinghe wrote:

“Our economic policy, Vision 2025, is firmly embedded in several principles, including a social market economy that delivers economic dividends to all…

Sri Lanka’s education system is being transformed through progressive and important policy reform…”

The implications of a “social market economy” and “economic dividends” cannot be understated. It is written using terms that make the reader think are benign, but are actually extremely radical policies.

Regarding social market economies, the University of Oxford writes, “the notion seeks a middle path between socialism and capitalism.” The economic strategy aims to implement social equality and justice though political means. The “economic dividends” are another red flag, it warns of a government-controlled economy in which individual profits are solely determined by the country’s leaders.

Just last year, Sri Lanka banned modern fertilizer in exchange for “organic” alternatives that are significantly less effective, and have been a contributing factor leading to food shortages.

The people of Sri Lanka have been suffering under these new “green” and globalist policies, and eventually decided that they have had enough.

The people of Sri Lanka began protesting, and have stormed the capital, leader’s residencies, and official government buildings. Some protesters have unfortunately resorted to violence, some even set fire to the Prime Minister’s home.

The outrage over a mismanaged economy, food shortages, and poor leadership caused the prime minister and the president of Sri Lanka to resign.

To address why this matters, and what implications it has for the United States:

There are those in the US who are pushing for the very same policies that just destroyed Sri Lanka’s economy. The World Economic Forum has been dubbed a conspiracy theory, and conservatives are told to take the rehearsed liberal narrative as truth instead of believing their own eyes.

Companies based in the US are encouraged to implement ESG (environmental, social, and governance) scores, to test their willingness to comply with the globalist and green agenda.

The unfolding chaos and devastation in Sri Lanka should be a warning to Americans, if we follow down the same path it’s clear we will supper the same fate.

For consistent deep dives on complex topics like this, be sure to tune into Human Events Daily, where I break down current events in just 25 minutes and provide easy-to-digest information.

Il WEF si preoccupa della popolazione mondiale

 

These five charts highlight key findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects

This article is reposted from .

There will be 8 billion people in the world by the end of 2022.

Image: Unsplash/Joseph Chan

Hannah Ritchie

Researcher, Our World in Data

Edouard Mathieu

Head of Data, Our World in Data

Lucas Rodés-Guirao

Senior Data Scientist, Our World in Data

Marcel Gerber

Software Engineer, Our World in Data

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  • The UN has released the 2022 update of its World Population Prospects, the largest global population dataset.
  • Whilst the rate of population growth is slowing down, the world is still set to pass 8 billion people by the end of 2022.
  • Our World in Data has outlined its key findings on population growth, COVID-19 and fertility rates from the update in these 5 charts.

How many people are there in the world? How many die each year, and how many babies are born?

These are key questions that we need to understand the world around us. The global population dataset is one of our most important at Our World in Data: it underpins nearly every topic we cover.

The UN releases an update of its World Population Prospects every two years. Its latest release was due in 2021 but was delayed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. But on World Population Day, the long-awaited dataset was released.

In this article, we highlight some of the key findings of the twenty-seventh publication of the ‘World Population Prospects’.

With early access to this new UN data we have also published a new Population and Demography Data Explorer, where you can explore this full dataset in detail, for any country in the world.

The world population will pass 8 billion at the end of 2022

Since 1975 the world has been adding another billion people every 12 years.

It passed its last milestone – 7 billion in 2011. And, by the end of 2022, it will pass another one: there will be 8 billion people in the world.

While this rate of absolute growth is similar to previous decades, the growth rate continues to fall. Since 2019, the global population growth rate has fallen below 1%.

That’s less than half its peak rate of growth – of 2.3% – in the 1960s.

As global fertility rates continue to fall (see below), this rate will continue to fall.

The growth rate continues to fall. Image: Our World in Data

The UN estimates around 15 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 from the COVID-19 pandemic

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on global population and migration trends.

We know that the confirmed death toll from COVID-19 is likely to significantly underestimate the true number of deaths because of limited testing. One way to get a better estimate of the total mortality impact of the pandemic is to look at excess mortality data. We can look at the total number of deaths and compare this to the number we expect to occur in a non-pandemic year.

In its latest population dataset, the UN estimates that in 2020, there were approximately 5 million excess deaths. In 2021, this figure was 10 million.

This estimate of 15 million excess deaths over 2020 and 2021 is in line with estimates from other organizations. The Economist put its central estimate of excess deaths at 17.6 million. The World Health Organization, which is a UN organization, estimated 14.9 million excess deaths.

These death figures are highly uncertain. But what’s clear is that the number of confirmed deaths – which was just 5.4 million by the end of 2021 – captures just a fraction of the true impact of the pandemic.

COVID-19 has had a significant impact on global population. Image: Our World in Data

The global population is projected to peak at around 10.4 billion in 2086

The world population has increased rapidly over the last century. When will it come to an end?

Previous versions of the UN World Population Prospects showed a significant slowdown in population growth, with very slow growth – almost reaching a plateau – by the end of the century. In its previous release, it projected that the world population would be around 10.88 billion in 2100, and would not yet have peaked.

In this new release, the UN projects that the global population will peak before the end of the century – in 2086 at just over 10.4 billion people.1

There are several reasons for this earlier, and lower, peak. One is that the UN expects fertility rates to fall more quickly in low-income countries compared to previous revisions. It also expects less of a ‘rebound’ in fertility rates across high-income countries in the second half of the century.

The world population has increased rapidly over the last century. Image: Our World in Data

The global fertility rate has continued to decline to 2.3 births per woman

A key determinant of the global population rate is the average number of children that women have over their lifetime – the ‘fertility rate’.

Fertility rates have fallen rapidly across the world in recent decades. In 1950, the average woman gave birth around 5 times. Since then, fertility rates have more than halved. In 2021, this global figure was 2.3 births per woman.

If you switch to the map tab in the interactive chart you see that most people in the world now live in countries where fertility rates are at – or below – the ‘replacement level’. This is the level at which populations would stabilize or shrink over the long-term. The UN reports that two-thirds of people live in countries where the fertility rate is below 2.1 births per woman. In some high-income countries such as South Korea, Japan, Spain, or Italy, it is as low as 1.3 births per woman.

Fertility rates have fallen rapidly across the world in recent decades. Image: Our World in Data

Next year India is expected to take over from China as the world’s most populous country

China has been the world’s most populous country for decades. It is now home to more than 1.4 billion people. However, its population growth rate has fallen significantly following a rapid drop in its fertility rate over the 1970s and 80s.

The fertility rate in India has also fallen substantially in recent decades – from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to just 2 births per woman today. However, the rate of this decline has been slower.

Because of this, India will very soon overtake China as the most populous country in the world. The UN expects this to happen in 2023.

India will very soon overtake China as the most populous country in the world. Image: Our World in Data

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.




  • World Economic Forum Deletes Sri Lankan PM Article Boasting Of Plan to Make Country ‘Rich by 2025’

     

    World Economic Forum Deletes Sri Lankan PM Article Boasting Of Plan to Make Country ‘Rich by 2025’

    Comes after Sri Lankan people overthrew government for collapsing country by trying to implement WEF's environmental social governance agenda.

    Image Credits: Pradeep Dambarage/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

    The World Economic Forum (WEF) has removed a 2018 article by the Sri Lankan Prime Minister on Tuesday touting a plan to make the country “rich by 2025” following the total collapse of the country.

    In the now-deleted article titled, “This is how I will make my country rich by 2025,” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe laid out his vision to “strategically position Sri Lanka as the hub of the Indian Ocean” in part by imposing WEF-sponsored environmental initiatives to address “climate change.”

    Wickremesinghe cited the WEF as an organization that will help him achieve his goals.

    “The 27th World Economic Forum on ASEAN in Ha Noi, Viet Nam, provides me with the opportunity to showcase the landmark changes in Sri Lanka and our growing economic interconnection with the ASEAN region and beyond,” he concluded. “It will build upon the foundations of the historical and cultural ties that have existed for many centuries, and which bind our people irrevocably.”

    Notably, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa also promised in 2019 to transition the country’s farmers to organic agriculture over 10 years, following up in April 2021 by imposing a nationwide ban on fertilizers and pesticides and ordering the country’s 2 million farmers to go organic.

    Just a few years later, Sri Lanka’s president fled the country and PM Wickremesinghe resigned last week after the people revolted and stormed their residences.

    Before its people stormed the presidential palace and overthrew the government, Sri Lanka had one of the highest ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) scores in the world. The ESG score is a new metric concocted by the corporate establishment to measure how “sustainable” and socially “equitable” nations and companies are.

    But the price for appeasing the globalists’ “green” initiatives was the total collapse of the country.

    “A food, energy, and financial crisis have brought down Sri Lanka’s government. But the underlying cause is the fact that the nation’s political leaders had fallen under the spell of green elites peddling ‘ESG’ and banning modern fertilizers,” wrote environmental activist Michael Shellenberger.

    These ESG initiatives like banning fertilizer caused the nation’s rice crop to fall by 20% in the first six months, crop productions to drop by 40-50%, and inflation to explode to 54%, which led 500,000 Sri Lankans into poverty.

    “The decision to overnight shift away from synthetic fertilizers was an absolute disaster,” economist Peter Earle noted last week. “To the extent that any part of this organic agriculture decision was made based upon some version of green or green from the ideologies, this is just the first of many unintended consequences we’ve seen from these kinds of policies.”

    Which country will fall next in trying to implement damaging WEF-led policies?


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    SHOCKING VIDEO: INSURRECTION In Sri Lanka! – President FORCED TO FLEE As Country Goes Bankrupt!


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