Un tempo solo Piccoli, Storti e Malfatti, ora un failed state: List of countries by Fragile States Index

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List of countries by Fragile States Index

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Countries according to the 2020 Fragile States Index
  Very high alert
  High alert
  Alert
  High warning
  Elevated warning
  Warning
  Stable
  More stable
  Very stable
  Sustainable
  Very sustainable
  Data unavailable

This is a list of countries by order of appearance in the Fragile States Index (formerly the Failed States Index) of the United States think tank Fund for Peace.

A fragile state has several attributes. Common indicators include a state whose central government is so weak or ineffective that it has little practical control over much of its territory; non-provision of public services; widespread corruption and criminality; refugees and involuntary movement of populations; and sharp economic decline.[1] Since 2005, the index has been published annually by the Fund for Peace and the magazine Foreign Policy. The list has been cited by journalists and academics in making broad comparative points about countries or regions.[2][3]

This is the list for 2020,[4] with comparisons of each country's current score to previous years' indices.

The report uses 12 factors to determine the rating for each nation, including security threats, economic implosion, human rights violations and refugee flows.

Indicators of a fragile state

The following factors are used by Fund For Peace to ascertain the status of a country.[5]

Social

  • Mounting demographic pressures and tribal, ethnic and/or religious conflicts.
  • Massive internal and external displacement of refugees, creating severe humanitarian emergencies.
  • Widespread vengeance-seeking group grievances.
  • Chronic and sustained human flight.

Economic

Political

  • Delegitimization of the state.
  • Deterioration of public services.
  • Suspension or arbitrary application of law; widespread human rights abuses.
  • Security forces operating as a "state within a state" often with impunity.
  • Rise of factionalized elites.
  • Intervention of external political agents and foreign states

Fragile States Index 2020

Rank Country 2020 score Change from 2019 Change from 2018 Change from 2017 Change from 2016 Change from 2015
1  Yemen 112.4 Positive decrease 1.1 Positive decrease 0.3 Negative increase 1.3 Negative increase 0.9 Negative increase 4.2
2  Somalia 110.9 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 3.1 Positive decrease 3.1
3  South Sudan 110.8 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 3.1 Positive decrease 3.0 Positive decrease 3.7
4  Syria 110.7 Positive decrease 0.8 Positive decrease 0.7 Negative increase 0.1 Positive decrease 0.1 Negative increase 2.9
5  DR Congo 109.4 Positive decrease 0.8 Positive decrease 1.3 Positive decrease 0.6 Positive decrease 0.6 Positive decrease 0.3
6  Central African Republic 107.5 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 3.6 Positive decrease 5.1 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 4.4
7  Chad 106.4 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 1.9 Positive decrease 3.0 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 2.0
8  Sudan 104.8 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 3.9 Positive decrease 5.8 Positive decrease 6.7 Positive decrease 6.0
9  Afghanistan 102.9 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 4.4 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 5.0
10  Zimbabwe 99.2 Positive decrease 0.3 Positive decrease 3.1 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 1.3 Positive decrease 0.8
11  Burundi 97.9 Positive decrease 0.3 Negative increase 0.5 Positive decrease 1.0 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 0.1
11  Cameroon 97.9 Negative increase 0.9 Negative increase 2.6 Negative increase 2.3 Negative increase 0.1 Negative increase 3.6
13  Haiti 97.7 Positive decrease 1.6 Positive decrease 4.3 Positive decrease 7.6 Positive decrease 7.4 Positive decrease 6.8
14  Nigeria 97.3 Positive decrease 1.2 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 4.3 Positive decrease 6.2 Positive decrease 5.2
15  Guinea 97.2 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 4.4 Positive decrease 5.2 Positive decrease 6.6 Positive decrease 7.7
16  Mali 96.0 Negative increase 1.5 Negative increase 2.4 Negative increase 3.1 Negative increase 0.8 Negative increase 3.1
17  Iraq 95.9 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 6.3 Positive decrease 9.5 Positive decrease 8.8 Positive decrease 8.5
18  Eritrea 95.8 Positive decrease 0.6 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 1.1
19  Niger 95.3 Positive decrease 0.9 Positive decrease 0.9 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 3.1 Positive decrease 2.5
20  Libya 95.2 Negative increase 3.0 Negative increase 0.6 Positive decrease 1.1 Positive decrease 1.2 Positive decrease 0.1
21  Ethiopia 94.6 Negative increase 0.4 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 6.5 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 2.9
22  Myanmar 94.0 Positive decrease 0.3 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 0.7
23  Guinea-Bissau 92.9 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 5.2 Positive decrease 6.6 Positive decrease 6.9 Positive decrease 7.0
24  Uganda 92.8 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 4.2
25  Pakistan 92.1 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 4.2 Positive decrease 6.8 Positive decrease 9.6 Positive decrease 10.9
25  Congo 92.1 Positive decrease 0.4 Positive decrease 1.0 Positive decrease 1.3 Positive decrease 0.1 Negative increase 1.3
27  Mozambique 91.7 Negative increase 3.0 Negative increase 3.0 Negative increase 2.7 Negative increase 3.9 Negative increase 4.8
28  Venezuela 91.2 Negative increase 1.9 Negative increase 5.0 Negative increase 8.3 Negative increase 9.6 Negative increase 12.5
29  Kenya 90.3 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 7.1 Positive decrease 6.1 Positive decrease 8.0 Positive decrease 7.0
30  North Korea 90.2 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 3.0 Positive decrease 3.1 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 3.6
31  Liberia 90.0 Positive decrease 0.2 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 3.8 Positive decrease 5.5 Positive decrease 7.3
32  Ivory Coast 89.7 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 6.8 Positive decrease 8.2 Positive decrease 10.4
33  Mauritania 88.7 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 3.5 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 6.7 Positive decrease 6.2
34  Angola 87.3 Positive decrease 0.5 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 3.8 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 0.6
35  Rwanda 86.0 Positive decrease 1.5 Positive decrease 3.3 Positive decrease 4.8 Positive decrease 5.3 Positive decrease 4.2
35  Egypt 86.0 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 2.7 Positive decrease 3.8 Positive decrease 4.2 Positive decrease 3.9
37  Burkina Faso 85.9 Negative increase 2.0 Positive decrease 0.6 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 3.5 Positive decrease 3.3
38  Togo 85.8 Positive decrease 1.6 Negative increase 0.6 Negative increase 1.9 Steady Positive decrease 1.0
39  Bangladesh 85.7 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 3.4 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 6.1
40  Lebanon 84.7 Positive decrease 0.3 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 3.5 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 3.4
41  Zambia 84.5 Positive decrease 1.2 Positive decrease 2.7 Positive decrease 3.3 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 0.6
42  Sierra Leone 84.4 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 6.6 Positive decrease 7.5
43  Malawi 84.0 Negative increase 0.7 Positive decrease 1.5 Positive decrease 4.0 Positive decrease 3.6 Positive decrease 2.9
44  Iran 83.4 Negative increase 0.4 Positive decrease 0.9 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 3.5 Positive decrease 3.7
45  Equatorial Guinea 83.0 Negative increase 0.4 Positive decrease 0.4 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 1.8
45  Eswatini 83.0 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 5.8 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 3.2
47  Djibouti 82.7 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 4.4 Positive decrease 6.2 Positive decrease 7.0 Positive decrease 5.3
47  Timor-Leste 82.7 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 5.6 Positive decrease 7.8 Positive decrease 8.1 Positive decrease 7.8
49    Nepal 82.6 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 5.3 Positive decrease 8.4 Positive decrease 8.6 Positive decrease 7.9
50  Papua New Guinea 82.3 Positive decrease 0.8 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 4.1 Positive decrease 3.9 Positive decrease 1.1
51  Gambia 82.2 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 7.2 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 3.2
52  Sri Lanka 81.8 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 3.1 Positive decrease 4.8 Positive decrease 5.9 Positive decrease 8.9
53  Comoros 81.2 Positive decrease 0.5 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 3.6 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 2.1
54  Philippines 81.0 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 3.4 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 5.2
55  Cambodia 80.3 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 5.4 Positive decrease 7.1 Positive decrease 7.6
56  Solomon Islands 79.7 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 3.4 Positive decrease 5.1 Positive decrease 5.6 Positive decrease 6.2
57  Madagascar 79.5 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 4.1 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 4.1
58  Guatemala 79.2 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 3.9 Positive decrease 4.0 Positive decrease 1.2
59  Turkey 79.1 Positive decrease 1.2 Positive decrease 3.1 Positive decrease 1.7 Negative increase 1.8 Negative increase 4.5
60  Lesotho 78.3 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.4 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 1.6
61  Tanzania 78.1 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 1.3 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 2.7
62  Nicaragua 77.1 Positive decrease 1.0 Negative increase 1.8 Positive decrease 0.3 Positive decrease 1.9 Positive decrease 1.9
63  Laos 76.9 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.8 Positive decrease 5.5 Positive decrease 7.5 Positive decrease 7.5
64  Honduras 76.8 Positive decrease 1.0 Positive decrease 0.5 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 3.0 Positive decrease 1.3
65  Colombia 76.6 Negative increase 0.9 Steady Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 3.6 Positive decrease 5.9
66  Tajikistan 75.5 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 4.0 Positive decrease 6.3 Positive decrease 8.3 Positive decrease 7.9
67  Jordan 75.4 Positive decrease 0.5 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 3.3 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 1.5
68  India 75.3 Negative increase 0.9 Positive decrease 1.0 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 4.3 Positive decrease 4.0
69  Israel /  West Bank 75.1 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 3.4 Positive decrease 3.8 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 4.3
70  Bolivia 75.0 Negative increase 2.1 Positive decrease 0.2 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.5 Positive decrease 3.1
71  Algeria 74.6 Positive decrease 0.8 Positive decrease 1.2 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 5.0
71  Senegal 74.6 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 7.7 Positive decrease 9.0 Positive decrease 8.3
73  Kyrgyzstan 73.9 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 6.4 Positive decrease 7.2 Positive decrease 8.3
74  Uzbekistan 73.1 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 6.0 Positive decrease 8.4 Positive decrease 10.4 Positive decrease 12.2
75  Brazil 73.0 Negative increase 1.2 Negative increase 4.3 Negative increase 4.8 Negative increase 7.7 Negative increase 10.3
76  Russia 72.6 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 6.6 Positive decrease 8.4 Positive decrease 7.4
77  Benin 72.5 Positive decrease 1.1 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 5.1 Positive decrease 6.4 Positive decrease 6.3
78  Azerbaijan 71.3 Positive decrease 1.9 Positive decrease 3.3 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 6.0
79  Micronesia 71.2 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 5.2 Positive decrease 5.9 Positive decrease 2.3
80  Morocco 71.2 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 3.0 Positive decrease 3.4
80  Georgia 71.2 Positive decrease 0.8 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 5.3 Positive decrease 7.7 Positive decrease 8.0
80  Thailand 70.8 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 4.2 Positive decrease 5.4 Positive decrease 8.0 Positive decrease 8.3
83  São Tomé and Príncipe 70.3 Positive decrease 0.8 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 3.4
84  Bosnia and Herzegovina 70.2 Positive decrease 1.1 Positive decrease 1.1 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 4.4 Positive decrease 7.2
85  South Africa 70.1 Positive decrease 1.0 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 2.2 Negative increase 0.2 Negative increase 3.1
86  China 69.9 Positive decrease 1.2 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 4.8 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 6.6
86  Fiji 69.9 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 7.0 Positive decrease 6.3 Positive decrease 6.8
88  Bhutan 69.5 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 4.8 Positive decrease 6.5 Positive decrease 8.1 Positive decrease 9.2
89  Ecuador 69.4 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 4.8 Positive decrease 7.9 Positive decrease 6.2 Positive decrease 6.5
90  Gabon 69.1 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 3.4 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 2.9 Positive decrease 2.1
90  Turkmenistan 69.1 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 3.5 Positive decrease 5.3 Positive decrease 6.9 Positive decrease 8.3
92  Ukraine 69.0 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 3.6 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 6.5 Positive decrease 7.3
93  El Salvador 68.9 Positive decrease 0.9 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 4.2 Positive decrease 3.6 Positive decrease 2.5
94  Saudi Arabia 68.8 Positive decrease 1.6 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 3.4 Positive decrease 2.8
95  Tunisia 68.1 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 4.0 Positive decrease 6.1 Positive decrease 6.5 Positive decrease 7.6
96  Indonesia 67.8 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 5.1 Positive decrease 7.1 Positive decrease 7.2
97  Peru 67.6 Positive decrease 0.6 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 2.7 Positive decrease 4.4 Positive decrease 4.4
98  Mexico 67.2 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 4.3 Positive decrease 7.1 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 4.7
99  Maldives 66.2 Positive decrease 3.6 Positive decrease 6.2 Positive decrease 8.2 Positive decrease 7.8 Positive decrease 8.1
100  Moldova 66.1 Positive decrease 1.1 Positive decrease 3.5 Positive decrease 6.0 Positive decrease 7.2 Positive decrease 7.0
101  Serbia 66.1 Positive decrease 1.9 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 3.9 Positive decrease 5.9 Positive decrease 7.7
102  Guyana 66.0 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 4.4 Positive decrease 5.3 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 4.5
103  Belarus 65.8 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 6.6 Positive decrease 8.1 Positive decrease 9.8
104  Paraguay 65.2 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 6.4 Positive decrease 7.4 Positive decrease 6.1
105  Namibia 65.1 Positive decrease 1.3 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 5.3 Positive decrease 6.0 Positive decrease 5.7
106  Cape Verde 64.8 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 5.3 Positive decrease 6.7 Positive decrease 8.7
107  Dominican Republic 64.4 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 4.8 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 6.4 Positive decrease 6.8
108  Armenia 64.2 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 5.3 Positive decrease 6.8 Positive decrease 5.4 Positive decrease 5.5
108  Ghana 64.2 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 3.9 Positive decrease 5.5 Positive decrease 7.0 Positive decrease 7.6
110  Bahrain 63.9 Negative increase 0.1 Positive decrease 0.5 Positive decrease 1.0 Negative increase 0.5 Positive decrease 0.5
110  Vietnam 63.9 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 6.3 Positive decrease 6.8 Positive decrease 8.5
112  Samoa 63.3 Positive decrease 0.9 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 3.8 Positive decrease 4.3 Positive decrease 4.9
113  Macedonia 62.1 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 2.7 Positive decrease 4.0 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 2.4
114  Belize 60.8 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 2.9 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 5.2 Positive decrease 4.5
115  Suriname 60.1 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.9 Positive decrease 5.8 Positive decrease 6.6 Positive decrease 8.3
116  Jamaica 60.0 Positive decrease 1.2 Positive decrease 3.1 Positive decrease 5.2 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 4.6
117  Kazakhstan 59.8 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.6 Positive decrease 6.1 Positive decrease 6.7 Positive decrease 8.5
118  Cuba 59.2 Positive decrease 1.6 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 5.4 Positive decrease 7.1 Positive decrease 8.2
119  Albania 58.8 Positive decrease 0.1 Positive decrease 1.3 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 3.1
120  Malaysia 57.6 Positive decrease 2.9 Positive decrease 6.0 Positive decrease 7.8 Positive decrease 8.5 Positive decrease 8.3
121  Botswana 57.1 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 6.7 Positive decrease 6.4 Positive decrease 5.7
122  Brunei Darussalam 56.6 Positive decrease 0.9 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 5.4 Positive decrease 6.4
123  Cyprus 56.1 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 4.2 Positive decrease 6.5 Positive decrease 7.9 Positive decrease 10.1
124  Montenegro 55.5 Negative increase 0.2 Negative increase 0.2 Positive decrease 0.2 Negative increase 0.3 Negative increase 1.3
125  Grenada 55.2 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 6.3 Positive decrease 7.8 Positive decrease 8.3
126  Seychelles 54.7 Positive decrease 0.5 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 5.5 Positive decrease 7.4
127  Greece 52.1 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 5.4 Positive decrease 3.8 Positive decrease 0.5
127  Antigua and Barbuda 52.1 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 3.5 Positive decrease 2.7 Positive decrease 4.1 Positive decrease 5.7
129  Trinidad and Tobago 51.9 Positive decrease 1.1 Positive decrease 2.7 Positive decrease 4.8 Positive decrease 5.9 Positive decrease 6.8
129  Mongolia 51.9 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 3.0 Positive decrease 4.8 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 5.1
131  Kuwait 50.9 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 7.6 Positive decrease 7.6 Positive decrease 6.6
132  Bahamas 49.9 Negative increase 1.1 Positive decrease 0.1 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 1.6
133  Bulgaria 49.2 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 6.2
134  Oman 48.0 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 3.6 Positive decrease 4.0
135  Hungary 47.6 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 4.4 Positive decrease 5.1 Positive decrease 1.5
136  Romania 46.7 Positive decrease 1.1 Positive decrease 2.7 Positive decrease 4.2 Positive decrease 6.2 Positive decrease 7.5
137  Barbados 46.4 Positive decrease 1.6 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.2 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 2.9
138  Croatia 46.1 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 6.3 Positive decrease 4.9
138  Argentina 46.1 Negative increase 0.1 Steady Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 1.5
140  Panama 46.0 Positive decrease 1.0 Positive decrease 3.5 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 7.2 Positive decrease 8.6
141  Qatar 43.7 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 4.4 Positive decrease 0.3 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 2.6
142  Chile 42.5 Negative increase 3.6 Negative increase 1.8 Negative increase 1.4 Negative increase 0.6 Negative increase 1.0
143  Italy 42.4 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 1.4 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 0.7 Positive decrease 0.8
144  Latvia 42.3 Positive decrease 1.6 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 4.1 Positive decrease 5.1 Positive decrease 6.2
145  Poland 41.0 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 0.5 Negative increase 0.2 Negative increase 0.3 Negative increase 1.2
146  Spain 40.4 Positive decrease 0.3 Positive decrease 1.0 Negative increase 2.5 Negative increase 0.6 Positive decrease 0.5
147  Costa Rica 40.2 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.0 Positive decrease 3.9 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 6.6
148  Estonia 38.5 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 6.2 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 5.2
149  United States 38.3 Negative increase 0.3 Negative increase 0.6 Negative increase 2.7 Negative increase 4.3 Negative increase 2.9
149  United Kingdom 38.3 Negative increase 1.6 Negative increase 4.0 Negative increase 5.1 Negative increase 5.9 Negative increase 4.9
151  Slovak Republic 38.2 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 4.3 Positive decrease 6.1 Positive decrease 6.7 Positive decrease 4.4
152  United Arab Emirates 38.1 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 5.6 Positive decrease 6.4 Positive decrease 8.1
153  Mauritius 37.2 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 3.3 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 6.0 Positive decrease 8.0
154  Lithuania 36.5 Positive decrease 1.6 Positive decrease 2.9 Positive decrease 5.2 Positive decrease 5.9 Positive decrease 6.5
155  Czech Republic 35.7 Positive decrease 1.9 Positive decrease 3.3 Positive decrease 4.4 Positive decrease 5.1 Positive decrease 1.7
156  Malta 33.6 Positive decrease 0.9 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 6.0 Positive decrease 7.3
157  Uruguay 33.4 Positive decrease 0.6 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 3.4 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 3.0
158  Japan 32.3 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 5.1 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 3.7
159  South Korea 32.0 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 6.1 Positive decrease 4.1 Positive decrease 4.3
160  France 30.5 Positive decrease 1.5 Positive decrease 1.7 Positive decrease 3.0 Positive decrease 4.0 Positive decrease 3.2
161  Belgium 27.1 Positive decrease 1.5 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 3.7 Positive decrease 1.9 Positive decrease 3.4
162  Singapore 26.3 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 4.1 Positive decrease 6.2 Positive decrease 6.6 Positive decrease 8.1
163  Slovenia 25.8 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 6.6 Positive decrease 8.1 Positive decrease 5.7
164  Austria 24.1 Positive decrease 0.9 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 3.6 Positive decrease 3.4 Positive decrease 1.7
165  Portugal 23.5 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 3.8 Positive decrease 5.5 Positive decrease 5.7 Positive decrease 6.2
166  Germany 23.2 Positive decrease 1.5 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 4.9 Positive decrease 5.4 Positive decrease 4.9
167  Netherlands 22.9 Positive decrease 1.9 Positive decrease 3.3 Positive decrease 4.5 Positive decrease 5.3 Positive decrease 4.0
168  Ireland 19.9 Positive decrease 0.7 Positive decrease 0.8 Positive decrease 2.4 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 4.7
169  Australia 19.7 Steady Positive decrease 1.1 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 4.6
170  Luxembourg 18.8 Positive decrease 1.6 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 4.6 Positive decrease 5.3 Positive decrease 3.3
171  Canada 18.7 Positive decrease 1.3 Positive decrease 2.8 Positive decrease 3.9 Positive decrease 5.1 Positive decrease 6.9
172  Sweden 18.2 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 3.9 Positive decrease 4.4 Positive decrease 2.0
173  New Zealand 17.9 Positive decrease 2.2 Positive decrease 3.0 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 3.4 Positive decrease 4.7
174  Iceland 17.8 Positive decrease 2.0 Positive decrease 2.5 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 5.6
175  Denmark 17.2 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 2.6 Positive decrease 4.3 Positive decrease 4.3 Positive decrease 4.2
176   Switzerland 17.1 Positive decrease 1.6 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 4.0 Positive decrease 4.7 Positive decrease 5.2
177  Norway 16.2 Positive decrease 1.8 Positive decrease 2.1 Positive decrease 4.3 Positive decrease 5.0 Positive decrease 4.7
178  Finland 14.6 Positive decrease 2.3 Positive decrease 3.3 Positive decrease 4.1 Positive decrease 4.2 Positive decrease 3.1

References


  1. "Fragile States Index and CAST Framework Methodology". The Fund for Peace.

External links

Languages

  • "What Does 'State Fragility' Mean?". Fund for Peace. Retrieved 31 August 2015.
  • "Failing States: SOS". The Economist. June 19, 2007. Retrieved 1 December 2012.
  • Bloom, David E. (May 5, 2011). "Africa's Daunting Challenges". New York Times. Retrieved 1 December 2012.
  • "Fragile States Index 2020". The Fund for Peace. 11 May 2020. Retrieved June 7, 2020.

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    Un tempo solo Piccoli, Storti e Malfatti, ora un failed state: Italy’s endgame and the future of the Eurozone

     

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    April 22nd, 2020

    Italy’s endgame and the future of the Eurozone

    1 comment | 10 shares

    Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

    Italy has been one of the hardest hit countries in the world during the Covid-19 outbreak and there are significant concerns about the impact the pandemic will have on the Italian economy. Roberto Orsi writes that the Eurozone is rapidly heading toward a point where it will either have to adopt radical new measures to accommodate countries like Italy or risk seeing the currency bloc break apart.

    The Covid-19 pandemic is accelerating Italy’s slide towards its economic and financial endgame. While before the pandemic the country already found itself in a precarious balance between high debt and no growth, this shock is precipitating the situation by bursting the various arrangements and tactics that both Rome and Brussels/Frankfurt were employing to create a screen of credibility and creditworthiness. The discussion about the future of the Eurozone (whether there is one, for whom, and how) is back again.

    A new economic environment

    The pandemic is still in its growing stage as this piece is being written, yet it is already clear that it is going to be a crisis of historical dimensions. It will not be over by the end of April or May 2020. This means the world economy will be virtually brought to a standstill for a whole quarter. Afterwards, even if a recovery will surely take place, and barring a second wave of contagion later on, any return to normality will be complicated and relatively slow-paced.

    It is difficult to estimate the death toll of such a pandemic and the scale of human suffering deriving directly or indirectly from the disease, and even more so the economic and social costs, but, judging by the unprecedented steps taken in all developed countries to prop up the economy, the economic and financial burden will be colossal.

    States will have to borrow enormous sums in order to avoid financial collapse, thus expanding national debt by a large margin. In the 2008-2009 crisis, national debts ballooned by 30% to 50% of GDP or more, depending on the country, in a few years. It appears that this crisis will require a much larger effort. How much larger, nobody knows yet, as it will depend on the duration of the pandemic. Still, it can be expected that major economies will shrink by 8-10% in 2020, with Goldman Sachs forecasting -9% in Q1 and -34% in Q2 for the United States.

    National debt expansion as the way forward?

    Former ECB Governor Mario Draghi has argued in a recent piece in the Financial Times that high sovereign debt/GDP ratios will become the norm, at least for a while. He is certainly correct about this, but the quality of the debt and the underlying national economies are not the same for all, and markets know it.

    The stakes are very clear: there are some countries, most notably Italy, which cannot expand their euro-denominated debt by 30% or 40% of their rapidly shrinking GDP, without explicit or implicit EU guarantees for the creditors. Without such a European guarantee, markets will not allow interest rates on Italy’s debt to remain extremely low, a requirement to keep interest payments at an acceptable level.

    Alternatively, the creditors will mostly become the ECB system or the Italian banks, or both, (this has already been happening for a number of years). Italy, a country which has not even recovered its pre-2008 GDP, can hardly be expected to repay any more national debt under the same system of Eurozone rules which have been in place up to now, even with the significant formal and informal amendments and innovative practices of the Draghi era.

    Italy’s Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, at a European Council meeting in February 2020, Credit: European Union

    Currently, the approach to the crisis is the following: EU limits to budget deficits are lifted, at least for 2020, and the national governments can spend as much as necessary, issuing new national debt; the ECB will provide the liquidity to buy this through the banks, or directly; the ECB will keep interest rates as low as possible to minimise interest payments; later on, in the next few years, the debt burden will have to be reduced by growing the economy and/or repaying the debt, and budget deficit restrictions will be reinstated.

    However, with the massive debt issuing that is now looming, who will support Italy when the debt/GDP ratio climbs from 135% in 2019 to 170%? To 180%? Those are the levels which triggered the debt crisis in Greece after 2010. Who believes that Italy will grow at an accelerated pace in the next decade? On the basis of what considerations? It appears therefore that the above-described public finance approach to this crisis will not work for Italy. The country’s leadership knows it, and they are looking for a different path.

    Solidarity and the Eurozone’s architecture

    The most straightforward way to stabilise Italy’s financial future revolves around the thorny question of the Eurozone’s mutual solidarity, its conditions and its limits. To understand this, one needs to go back to the question of the Eurozone’s fundamental architecture and ethos. If the national debts were pooled or shared in some way, or monetised by the ECB, part of Italy’s debt would be paid, in the long run, also by other euro members’ taxpayers, and such a European formal guarantee would reassure the markets, provided that Europe as a whole remains a credible debtor.

    Debt pooling, whatever the financial arrangement, would require the overhaul of the Eurozone as it was initially conceived, to make it, by necessity, something that many within Europe, both governments and citizens, do not want. The Eurozone was supposed to be an exclusive club of high-performance economies, run with strict rules mirroring the best practices of the Bundesbank, and the fiscal restraint of northern European economies. The euro was supposed to make every economy more efficient internally and more competitive externally, by inducing structural changes to be managed by national governments under the supervision of EU authorities, with the goal of an increasing convergence in governance standards and results. Still, the underlying political agreement in the Maastricht Treaty called for a separation of national budgets, and the ultimate national responsibility for sovereign debt.

    Instead, the results after two decades, whether or not caused by the euro, appear to be: 1) a persistent, even increasing divergence in the public finance performance in the North and in the South of the continent; 2) a perceived stagnation and/or worsening of living standards in numerous parts of the continent; 3) increased political pressure on the EU and the Eurozone project calling for radical reforms, going either towards debt pooling (sometimes unconditional), or towards the dismantling of the Eurozone/exit of single countries.

    Whichever way one may look at it, it appears that the original project and architecture of the Eurozone is no longer tenable, if all members are to remain within it. The Eurozone as a single currency bloc may perhaps be able to survive in some form, but in order to do so, it must, at least temporarily (but still, for a long time, possibly decades): a) embrace the idea that it has failed to be the above-mentioned exclusive club of well-functioning economies; b) consider the Stability and Growth Pact as overhauled and no longer applicable; c) agree on a new identity and mission; d) agree on a new legal and political structure, one which goes beyond the concept of separation of national budgets.

    The last point is the most difficult one. In principle, debt pooling could be agreed if there were a shared vision of what to do in the future in terms of macroeconomic and fiscal policies, and if there were enough chance of success. Such chances are not visible to most people. Besides, there is no clear political vision for further integration of EU or Eurozone members, as it is rather unavoidable, out of political and organisational considerations, that debt pooling would require a harmonised fiscal policy, and hence some sort of political union.

    There could be partial forms of pooling, for instance for bonds related to particular kinds of investments (but who controls how the money will be spent? how can rules be enforced?), or bonds issued by a group of Eurozone members, but not all, for instance a “southern alliance” with France at the helm. On the other hand, numerous political leaders in the North have already expressed rather clearly the view that they wish to keep the ultimate separation of national budgets as a non-negotiable element of the Eurozone.

    North vs. South?

    Many in Italy regard resistance against debt pooling as a want of European solidarity, and a failure to live up to the political and ethical commitment from other EU members. However, should EU solidarity be unconditional? While it is certainly good to show solidarity at a time of acute distress (as is happening now), infinite and unconditional solidarity is ethically wrong. Once the emergency is over, it is not unfair to ask every country to return to a path of economic and financial sustainability. Is financial sustainability not the norm of every state budget, or even every household?

    The possible existence of areas of the Eurozone permanently depending on transfers from other regions would be unfair and it would certainly generate, as is already happening, fierce political resistance. Solidarity should always be conditional in the long run. Italy is right in demanding solidarity (it will get it for as long as the pandemic continues), but there are many in Italy who are wrong in refusing to discuss and negotiate conditions, insisting on an incorrect solidarity concept.

    If Italy’s position in demanding unconditioned solidarity is incorrect, the probable conditions to be put forth by many in the northern part of the Eurozone in case of national debt restructuring or another form of financial support for distressed countries, have problems of their own. Most notably, the structural adjustments which would be likely included in the conditions of any ESM activation, such as tax hikes and spending cuts, as already observed during the Greek crisis, will cause social and economic pain as a result of a longer and deeper recession, and produce political side-effects, such as the further spread of Euroscepticism, which are seldom taken into account, thus in the end worsening the EU’s political crisis.

    Moreover, it is questionable whether such structural reforms would actually deliver meaningful, long-lasting results, and allow a country like Italy to return to a path of economic growth and financial sustainability. Spain and Portugal have certainly managed to recover from the 2008-2009 crash while implementing reforms which came as conditions to access EU support, but they did so by massively expanding their national debt and running high deficits for most of the past decade (Spain from 39.5% of GDP in 2008 to 95.5% in 2019; Portugal from 71.7% in 2008 to 117.7% in 2019), while Italy, as its debt already stood at 99.8% of GDP in 2008, was unable to do the same. Moreover, structural reforms are not addressing one of the most important economic issues in Italy, namely the now practically inevitable demographic collapse, which, according to a study by the Bank of Italy, will be a formidable headwind for the country from now onwards, leading to a scenario of permanent recession.

    Both main positions now shaping the intra-EU debate, the one demanding unconditional solidarity and the abandonment of most metrics of economic performance, as well as the one pretending to have the right (technical) solutions for Italy’s and the Eurozone’s problems, are wrong. If some kind of solution can emerge from the current predicament, it should be one starting from the acknowledgment that the dominant way to conceptualise the Eurozone’s governance has historically failed.

    It has failed because it was grounded on the illusion that law (in the form of international treaties initially envisaged in the late 1980s, and thus in a completely different economic, social, and demographic landscape) can predict and regulate any occurrence in political and economic life, indefinitely. It has failed because of excessive juridification as the most obvious degeneration of post-war Ordnungspolitik.

    If such a failure were to be acknowledged, however, the conclusion may arise that the only convenient path forward is an orderly démontage of the currency bloc. This option is surely under consideration by some, particularly in the North, even if it implies huge political costs and great uncertainties. Exceptional times favour exceptional decisions. The Covid-19 pandemic offers a unique opportunity for radical moves. If the Eurozone project is to be abandoned, now is the time.

    Please read our comments policy before commenting.

    Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics.

    _________________________________

    About the author

    Roberto Orsi – University of Tokyo
    Roberto Orsi is an Associate Professor in the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo.

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