Italia 2100: L'invasione degli ultracorpi

 

Italian population: by 2100 it will halve according to a study in the Lancet

July 16, 202001223

After the Istat Demographic Balance which confirms the decline of the Italian population with a historical minimum of births, a study arrives in the prestigious magazine The Lancet which predicts a population for Italy that will be halved in 2100, with all the social and economic repercussions of phenomenon.

On Lancet was published July 14, 2020 the study " Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100 forecasting analysis for Global Burden of Disease Study ," conducted by researchers at the University of Washington- Seattle and partially funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation , according to which the world population will probably peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion , then drop to around 8.8 billion by 2100 and, in particular, Italy which it has already peaked at 61 million in 2014 , and will drop to around 30.5 million by  2100.

For modeling, researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine used data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study , used new methods to predict mortality , fertility and migration , which they estimated by 2100, 183 of the 195 countries surveyed will have total fertility rates (TFR), well below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman needed to keep the number of inhabitants unchanged, so that their population will rapidly decline unless low fertility is offset by immigration.

Map of the year in which the net reproduction rate will drop below the replacement level

These demographic forecasts contrast with the projections of " continued global growth " by the United Nations Population Division ( UN-DESA ) and highlight the enormous challenges to economic growth posed by a shrinking workforce, high burden for health and social support systems represented by an aging population and the impact on global power linked to changes in the world population.

" The continued growth of the global population over the course of the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world population - said Christopher Murray , Director of the IHME, who coordinated the research - This study offers governments of all countries the opportunity to start rethinking their migration, workforce and economic development policies to address the challenges posed by demographic change “.

The new study also predicts massive shifts in the global age structure by 2100, with an estimated 2.37 billion people over 65, compared to 1.7 billion under 20 .

The global severance pay is expected to steadily decline, from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100 - well below the minimum rate (2.1) deemed necessary to maintain the number of inhabitants (replacement level) - with rates that will fall to around 1.2 in Italy and Spain, and up to 1.17 in Poland .

Istat published the National Demographic Balance on 13 July 2020 which shows that in Italy the negative trend started in 2015 is confirmed, with a new historical low of births and a demographic recession due to Italian citizens, while that of foreign residents it continues to increase, albeit with rates of increase that are fading.

Even slight changes in TFR translate into large differences in population size in countries below the replacement level: an increase of just 0.1% in births equates to about 500 million more people on the planet in 2100 .

Much of the projected decline in fertility is expected in high-fertility countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa where rates are expected to drop below the replacement level for the first time, from an average of 4.6 births. per woman in 2017 at only 1.7 per 2100 . In Niger , where the fertility rate was the highest in the world in 2017 - with women giving birth to an average of 7 babies - the rate is expected to drop to around 1.8 by 2100 .

However, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to triple over the course of the century, from an estimated 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100 , with falling mortality rates and an increasing number of women who they enter the reproductive age . The North Africa and the Middle East are other regions where it is expected a growth of population in 2100 (978 million), compared to 2017 (600 million euros) .

Many of the fastest shrinking populations will be in Asia and Central Eastern Europe. Populations are expected to halve in 23 countries, including Japan (from about 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100), Thailand (from 71 to 35 million), Spain (from 46 to 23 million), Italy (from 61 to 31 million), Portugal (from 11 to 5 million) and South Korea (from 53 to 27 million).
Another 34 countries are expected to have a 25 to 50% drop in population, including China (1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100; see table).

" If population decline is potentially good news to reduce carbon emissions and impacts on food systems - said IHME Prof. Stein Emil Vollset and lead author of the research - with more and less young people, economic challenges will arise. with companies that will have to struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayers and the reduced capacity of countries to generate the wealth necessary to finance social support and health care for the elderly ”.

Among the various reasons that explain the global population decline are the low birth rate caused by a sharp decline in fertility, the increase in the level of schooling of women and access to contraception .

Furthermore, research suggests that population decline could be offset by immigration, with countries having to promote immigration to maintain population size and sustain economic growth, even in the face of falling fertility rates.

Ranking of the top 25 economies by total GDP in 2017 and reference scenario in 2030, 2050 and 2100

" This important research outlines a future that we urgently need to plan - explained Richard Horton , Editor in Chief of the Lancet - It offers a vision for radical changes in geopolitical power, challenges immigration myths and highlights the importance of protecting and enforcing sexual rights. and reproductive of women. The 21st century will see a revolution in the history of our civilization. Africa and the Arab world will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will see their influence diminish. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the United States being the dominant powers. This will truly be a new world that we should be preparing for today ”